[FT]America’s chance to kick its Asian addiction

America’s chance to kick its Asian addiction
아시아산 마약을 차버릴 미국의 기회
By David Pilling

Published: October 1 2008 18:43 | Last updated: October 1 2008 18:43

Did America hang itself with Asian rope? I put this to a Chinese official last week and, quick as a flash, he responded: “No. It drowned itself in Asian liquidity.”
미국이 아시아 줄을 쥐고 있었나? 중국관리: (재빠르게) 아뇨. 아시아 유동성에 스스로 빠졌죠.

Asia’s part in America’s financial downfall has been two-fold. First, shiploads of cheap goods from China and other low-cost producers helped keep a lid on US prices. That lulled the Fed, with its tight focus on the consumer price index, into thinking it could have it both ways: high growth with low inflation.
미국이 금융위기를 맞게된데 아시아의 책임은 두개다. 첫째는 중국에서 생산한 싼 물건과
저비용 공급자들이 미국의 가격을 감추도록 도운거다. 그게 소비자 물가 지수만 봐 온 페드를 고성장과 저물가로 안심시켰다.
keep a lid on:감추어 두다 lulled:안심시키다
Second, Asian bank reserves of $4,300bn (£2,400bn, €3,000bn) – enough to fund Treasury secretary Hank Paulson’s bail-out six times over – combined with petrodollars to provide the US with almost endless liquidity. This poured into US Treasuries and Fannie and Freddie bonds, suppressing US interest rates, inflating the housing bubble and funding buy-now pay-later consumption.
둘째, 아시아 은행들은 미국채를 사들이면서 미국에 유동성을 공급했다. 아시아 돈이 미국채에 몰리자 이자율은 떨어졌다. 값싼 이자율 때문에 주택가격이 오르고 주택담보대출로 소비가 늘었다.

Western banks and hedge funds used Asia, particularly Japan, as an enchanted pool of money. Through the so-called carry trade, they dipped their ladles into its ultra-low interest rate waters and splashed the proceeds around on exotic, high-yield instruments. For a while it all worked beautifully. You know the rest.
헤지펀드와 서방은행은 엔케리 트레이드로 아름다운 성과를 누렸다.

In one sense, this is a story of Asian prudence versus US recklessness. By accumulating vast savings – China and Japan alone boast 40 per cent of global central bank reserves – Asians have lived below their means so that Americans could live beyond theirs. Asia bankrolled US budget and trade deficits and provided the cash for banks and individuals to go on a spending spree and for Washington to fight wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
중국과 일본이 대출해 주자 미국은 무역적자와 재정적자에도 불구하고 소비하고 전쟁을 벌일 수 있었다.
deficit:적자

“Arguably, the US overextended itself in international relations and in the management of its domestic situation. It spent way beyond its means,” says Fang Xinghai, director general of Shanghai’s Financial Services Office. “For a while, the US thought this was great and that this trade could go on forever.”
팡싱하이(상하이 금융서비스 사장)"미국은 자신을 제어 할 수 없을 정도로 팽창했다.", "미국은 이런 방식이 영원할거라고 착각한거다."

While it lasted, China and others were able to grow at supercharged rates by lending to Americans so that they could import its products. Now that wheeze is over, Asia will suffer too. But even if China, which grew at 12 per cent last year, loses 4 percentage points of growth, it will still be clipping along at 8 per cent. If the US or Europe loses the same amount, it will be deep in recession.
중국은 미국에 돈을 빌려주었기에 수출할 수 있었다. 따라서 미국이 어려워지면 중국도 힘들거다. 중국경제성장률은 당초 예상치인 12%에서 4%하락한 8%정도 될 것이다. 하지만 유럽이나 미국이 4%하락한다면? 심각한 경제침체가 오는거다.

Wall Street’s 9/11 could thus turn out to be an important milestone on the road to Asia’s century. US presidential candidates invoked that possibility last week in their debate. Barack Obama referred to China’s recent space walk as a sign that it was catching up while America floundered. John McCain, attacking waste in Washington, said: “We owe China $500bn.” Mr Obama went one better, saying (more accurately) China “now holds $1,000bn of our national debt”. Linking finance with power, he added: “There has never been a country on earth that saw its economy decline and yet maintained its military superiority.”
9/11사태는 아시아의 시대로 가는 이정표이다. 오바마 "미국은 중국에 1조달러의 빚을 지고 있다. 세계 어느 나라도 경제력이 후퇴할 때 군사력을 유지하지는 못했다."
milestone:이정표

There has been a cautious reappraisal in parts of Asia too. “More people understand that America is not as great as it was 10 years ago,” says Shen Dingli of Fudan university in Shanghai. “This is not a time for China to be on a par with America. But the relative shift of the centre of gravity does bring China more confidence.”
쉔딩리(푸단대) 미국은 10년 전처럼 강하지 않다. 그렇다고 중국이 미국처럼 강한 것은 아니다. 그러나 세계의 중심축은 움직이고 있다. 중국은 더욱 자신있어질거다."

For the moment, though, the fates of Asia and the US remain more aligned than opposed. Chinese, Singaporean and other Asian investors have lost billions on their stakes in failing western institutions. Asian governments have insisted on the need for a US bail-out to protect their sovereign investments.
살찐 아시아와 미국은 얼마간은 적대적이기보단 우호적인관계를 유지할거다. 아시아 투자자들은 미국 금융위기로 미 금융기관에 투자한 자금을 잃었다. 아시아 정부는 그들의 국부펀드자금을 보호하기 위해 미국의 구제금융법안을 촉구하고 있다.

US woes bounce back in other ways, too. In August, Japan recorded its first seasonally adjusted monthly trade deficit in a quarter of a century after shipments to the US slid 22 per cent. Net exports are not expected to contribute anything at all to Chinese growth this year. “China feels the same pain as America,” says Prof Shen. “It is not a case of: ‘Your loss is my win,’ but rather: ‘You lose, I lose.’ ”
미국은 다른 방면으로도 아시아의 꼬리를 물고 있다. 일본과 중국은 대미수출이 감소하면서 각각 무역적자를 기록하거나 성장에 대한 수출기여도가 사라졌다. 미국이 힘들어지면 아시아국가도 힘들어지는거다.

More fundamentally, the pattern of flows from Asia to the US and other deficit countries could change. If the US can wean itself off what has been an unhealthy addiction, the shock could yet turn out to be to its long-term advantage. It has already started increasing exports and importing less.
좀 더 근본적으로 미국은 이번기회에 체질을 개선할 수도 있다. 만약 미국이 마약에 취해있던 과거에서 벗어날 수 있다면 미국은 더욱 건강해 질거다. 일단 수출이 증가하고 수입이 감소하기 시작했다.

In another sign of change, the big gap between returns that drove Japanese capital to the US has narrowed sharply for bonds and disappeared altogether for equity, says Peter Tasker of Kleinwort Dresdner. “This could be the crumbling of the configuration that has seen capital surplus countries funding US consumption,” he says.
일본과 미국의 주식및 채권수익률 차가 줄어들면서 아시아돈이 미국의 소비를 촉진했던 공식이 바뀔 수도 있게 되었다.

For that to happen Asians would have to start spending more at home. That could be brought about by a deep recession, which would oblige them to run down savings. Alternatively, Asian governments could encourage their citizens to break savings habits and go on a US-style binge.
그렇게 되려면 아시아가 저축을 줄이고 소비를 늘려야 한다.
@김학주 센터장은 중국의 경제가 소비력을 가지기 위해서는 4천만불은 되야 한다고 했다. 4천만불이 되지 않으면 저축하기도 빠듯하기 때문이다.

Chinese citizens, whose consumption accounts for a measly third of national output – against 70 per cent in the US – could certainly spend more. But Beijing, which has already taken steps to prick the housing bubble, appears in no hurry to encourage reckless spending.
reckless: 무모한
중국인들은 돈을 미국소비량의 70%만 쓰고 있기 때문에 더 많이 쓸 수 있다. 그러나 베이징은 주택가격거품이 터질 위험이 있다.
Says Mr Fang: “I’m not sure you should encourage people to borrow in order to spend. That is what bankrupted the US.”
팡:나는 사람들에 돈을 빌려줘야 할 지 모르겠다. 미국이 파산한게 소비를 촉진하려고 돈을 빌려줬기 때문이다.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008