Asia trade suffers as Chinese imports fall
중국의 수입이 줄어드르면서 아시아의 무역이 어려워지고 있다.
By Raphael Minder in Hong Kong and Christian Oliver in Seoul

Published: March 1 2009 19:01 | Last updated: March 1 2009 19:05

Asia, whose economic resilience was in part meant to be guaranteed by booming regional trade, is confronting growing signs that such trade remains much more dependent on western demand than previously hoped.
지역무역이 붐을 일으켜 경제가 회복할 것으로 여겨지던 아시아는 무역이 여전히 서구의 수요에 의존하면서 성장징표가 한계에 부딪혔다.

Michael Buchanan, Asia chief economist at Goldman Sachs, says the dramatic fall in Chinese imports from other Asian countries in January shows that Chinese consumers have not replaced their US and European counterparts. Instead, he says a lot of intra-Asian trade still “smells a lot of just supply-chain dynamics” feeding exports to other regions.
중국의 대아시아 수입이 급격하게 줄어드는 것은 중국소비자가 아직 미국과 유럽을 대체하지 못하는 것을 보여준다. 대신 많은 아시아내 무역은 여전히 공급...

In January, exports from Taiwan and South Korea to China fell by 50 per cent and 33 per cent year-on-year respectively. South Korea said on Sunday its overall exports fell less rapidly in February than in January. But it will release only on Monday a breakdown of shipments to China and elsewhere.
1월에, 대만과 한국에서 중국으로의 수출은 각각 50%, 30%씩 감소했다. 일요일 한국은 2월달 수출량이 1월에 비해 덜 급격히 감소했다고 발표했다. 그러나 월요일에 중국과 기타국으로 가는 물류가 줄어들면 드러날 것이다.

More bad news is expected to follow, at least until the second quarter, as most export-focused Asian companies cut jobs and manufacturing capacity because of anaemic western consumer demand. Government stimulus packages, heavily geared towards infrastructure spending, will only gradually help Asia recover, rather than act as an overnight cure.
더욱 안좋은 뉴스가 있다. 적어도 2분기까지는 아시아의 수출기업들이 일자리를 줄이고 생산량을 감소한다는 것이다. 이는 서구소비의 감소때문이다. 정부의 경기부양책은
Asia’s most open economies – Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore – are suffering the most. Each of them is set to see their economies contract this year. In Hong Kong and Singapore, the problems are compounded by a furious race to expand a financial sector that is now bleeding jobs and triggering a tumble in high-end property prices.

Among Asian nations, only the Philippines and Indonesia have a lower ratio of exports to gross domestic product now than in 2001. Some economists are warning that other Asian nations should stop counting on intervention from Beijing to lift the region out of its economic quagmire.

“There is a sense in Asia that as long as China continues to grow relatively quickly, then the rest of Asia will benefit . . . China is now the most important market for many Asian export-oriented economies, but it appears to us that China’s economic stimulus plan will support domestic investment, which is not necessarily import-intensive,” says James McCormack, Fitch’s head of Asian sovereign ratings.

Nevertheless, many economists are still expecting a regional rebound in the second half. Some of the optimism stems from a belief that the recent slowdown was in part self-induced.

A year ago, authorities were facing surging oil and food prices, which convinced them to review their traditional bias towards growth and worry more about inflation. But having raised interest rates aggressively, they were confronted with a worldwide credit meltdown, so that “at a time when they should have been infusing liquidity to strengthen financial sector fragility, they actually constrained it,” says Subir Gokarn, Asia chief economist at Standard & Poor’s.

The good news, Mr Gokarn and others note, is that central banks, other than Japan’s, have room to cut rates further and feed into an Asian banking system that still has plenty of liquidity and has not suffered anything like the subprime-induced losses of western banks.

Furthermore, Asia will reap great long-term benefits from additional infrastructure spending, because of years of under-spending and a booming urban population.

Despite some concerns about how efficiently the money will now be spent, “Asia is one of the very few regions of the world where there is a really valid case for expanding infrastructure,” says Glenn Maguire, Asia chief economist at Société Générale.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009