New Zealand slashes rates to record low

New Zealand slashes rates to record low
뉴질랜드가 금리를 최저치로 낮췄다.
By Peter Smith in Sydney

Published: January 29 2009 02:38 | Last updated: January 29 2009 02:38

New Zealand’s central bank cut its official rate by a larger than expected 1.5 percentage points on Thursday when it warned the country was likely to remain in recession for much of 2009.
뉴질랜드가 경기침체때문에 예상치를 훨씬 웃도는 1.5%를 낮췄다.

The aggressive move, which matched a similar sized reduction in December, came less than a day after international organisations warned the world economy in 2009 would suffer its worst performance for more than 60 years.
2009년이 최악일 것이라는 예상 후에 나온 강력한 조치다.

In reducing the official cash rate from 5 to 3.5 per cent, Alan Bollard, Reserve Bank of New Zealand governor, highlighted the “very negative” news that had come recently from the country’s leading trading partners.
5%에서 3.5%로 낮춘 가운데 은행관계자는 매우 부정적인 소식이라고 말했다.

“The global economy is now in recession and the outlook for international growth has been marked down considerably since our December Monetary Policy Statement,” he said, adding there was “huge uncertainty about the timing and strength of a recovery”.
세계경제가 침체상황에 있으며 세계성장율은 하락하고 있다. 언제 얼마나 회복할 수 있을지도 불확실하다.

Mr Bollard also forecast that New Zealand was likely to stay in recession “for the first half of this year”.
이번년도 전반기 동안은 침체기가 지속 될것

New Zealand’s economy began contracting at the beginning of 2008 and many economists expect it to remain depressed in 2009.
경제전문가들도 2009년에 침체가 계속될 것으로 예상했다.

The central bank has embarked on successive rounds of rate cuts since the official cash rate peaked at 8.25 per cent in the middle of last year.
작년 중반기 8.25%금리를 찍은 뒤 중앙은행은 금리를 성공적으로 내렸다.

However, Thursday’s move surprised the market which had forecast a one percentage point reduction.
그러나 목요일의 조치는 1%하락을 예상한 시장을 놀라게 했다.

Mr Bollard suggest that additional cuts were likely.
총재는 추가인하가 있을 것이라고 말했다.

“We would expect any further reductions to be smaller than those seen recently,” he said, adding that future decisions would be based on “emerging developments in the global and domestic economies and the response to policy changes already in place”.
신흥시장과 국내경제 정책에 대한 반응을 보고 추가인하여부를 결정할 것이며 그 수치는 이전보다는 작을 것.

The deterioration in New Zealand’s economy comes only months after John Key was elected as the country’s new prime minister.
존 키가 총리로 선출된지 한달만에 뉴질랜드 경제가 붕괴되었다.

Since the National party’s victory, New Zealand’s economy has continued to shrink. September quarter gross domestic product contracted by 0.4 per cent, the third successive quarterly fall in the country’s GDP.
국민당정권이 들어선 이후 경제는 나락에 떨어졌다. 2008년 3/4분기는 0.4%상승했고, 이 후에는 GDP가 감소했다.

New Zealand has also suffered from rising unemployment and a deterioration in government finances.
또한 뉴질랜드는 실업율상승과 정부재정파탄으로 고생을 겪고 있다.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009

[FT]Global crisis ‘could cost 50m jobs’

Global crisis ‘could cost 50m jobs’
국제금융위기로 5천만개 일자리를 잃을 수 있다.
By Frances Williams in Geneva

Published: January 28 2009 12:39 | Last updated: January 28 2009 12:39

Global unemployment and poverty are set for a “dramatic increase” in the coming year as the world economic crisis deepens, according to a new report.
새로운 보고서에 따르면 세계경제위기가 심화되어 세계적으로 실업과 빈곤이 이번 년도에 극적으로 상승할 것이라고 한다.

Projections by the International Labour Organization, a UN agency, on global employment trends predict that on a worst-case scenario, recorded unemployment could rise by more than 50m from baseline 2007 levels to 230m or 7.1 per cent of the world’s labour force by the end of 2009.
유엔산하 세계노동기구가 국제취업현황예측을 최악의 상황으로 가정하여 조사한 결과 연말까지 실업은 5천만에서 2억 3천만 사이이거나 7.1퍼센트일 것으로 나타났다.

In the same scenario the number of people in “working poverty”, earning less than $2 a day, could rise to 1.4bn or 45 per cent of all workers, from 1.2bn in 2007.
똑같은 추정에서 하루에 2달러 이하를 버는 노동빈곤층의 수는 14억명 혹은 전체 노동자의 45%일 것이며 2007년에는 12억명이었다.

This would leave as many people below the poverty line as there were in 1997, wiping out all the gains over the past decade and marking “a return to a situation in which more than half of the global labour force would be unemployed or counted as working poor.”
이는 1997년 만큼 많은 사람들이 빈곤수준 이하로 남겨지는 것, 지난 십년간 벌어들인 것을 모두 날려버리는 것이며 전체 노동자 중 절반 이상이 실업자나 빈곤노동자가 되는 상황으로 돌아가는 것이다.

Juan Somavia, ILO director-general, said its message was “realistic, not alarmist”. “We are now facing a global jobs crisis…Progress in poverty reduction is unravelling and middle classes worldwide are weakening. The political and security implications are daunting.”
ILO의 관리자인 후안 소마비아는 이것이 뜻하는 바가 현실이지 경고가 아니라고 말했다. "우리는 지금 세계일자리위기에 처했다. 부의 감소가 진행되고 있으며 중간계층이 세계적으로 약해지고 있다. 정치적 안보적인 분규가 위압적이 되고 있다.

The ILO projections are based on an estimate of 2.2 per cent global economic growth for 2009 issued by the International Monetary Fund in November. The IMF is due to release revised more pessimistic forecasts later on Wednesday but ILO economists said this would not alter their middling to worst-case scenarios for a rise in unemployment of 30m to 50m.
ILO의 연구는 IMF가 지난 11월에 발표한 성장률 예측치인 2.2%에 기반을 두고 가정한 것이다. IMF는 더욱 부정적인 예측을 수요일날 수정해서 내놓았지만 ILO의 경제전문가들은 최악의 상황에 대한 그들의 실업율 예상치를 수정하지 않았다고 말했다.

Published in a week that saw job-loss announcements totalling more than 80,000, the ILO report says the crisis has affected most sectors of the economy and resulted in an unusually sharp increase in layoffs.
일주일 뒤 발간된 자료에서는 일자리 감소가 8만건 이상이었으며 ILO 발간물에서는 위기가 경제 대부분의 영역에 영향을 미치고 있으며 이것이 이례적인 급격한 증가로 드러났다고 말했다.

ILO economists attribute this partly to the depth and scope of the global economic downturn. However, another reason is the much higher proportion of people in temporary and other “non-standard” jobs, who have little or no protection against redundancy, than was the case in previous recessions in industrialised countries.
ILO 경제전문가들은 이것이 부분적으로 국제경제침체의 깊이와 넓이 탓이라고 말했다. 그러나 또다른 이유는 산업화된 나라들의 지난 침체와 같이 임시직의 높은 비율과 상대적으로 보호를 받지 못하는 비정규직때문이다.

Mr Somavia called on the Group of 20 leaders meeting in London at the beginning of April to agree priority measures to promote investment, jobs and improved social protection.
소마비아는 4월초에 런던에서 20명의 리더들과 만나 투자를 촉진하고 일자리를 창출하며 사회적 보호를 늘리기로 합의했다.

He said governments should be putting in place a “basic socio-economic floor” of income support, access to health services and so on that would cushion the impact of the crisis for ordinary workers and their families.
그는 정부가 임금보조나 건강보험 등과 같은 사회경제적인 기초에서 역활을 하여 일반노동자들과 그들의 가족들에게 돌아가는 위기의 충격을 완화해야 한다고 말했다.


Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009

정부가 노력해야 할 부분이 많다.

Mapping decline and recovery across sectors
Different sectors enter and emerge from downturns at different times. A look at past recessions suggests how some industries may fare.

JANUARY 2009 • Bin Jiang, Timothy M. Koller, and Zane D. Williams
In This Article

* Exhibit 1: All four of the most recent recessions began with falling sales and EBITA in the consumer-discretionary sector.
* Exhibit 2: The extent of the contraction of EBITA during recessions varies across sectors.
* Exhibit 3: During a recession, the share price performance of different sectors tends to be more similar the than financial performance.

* About the authors
* Letters to the editor

In an ideal world, every company would enter a recession led by a team of grizzled executives who could draw on their experiences of past downturns to guide it through the current one. Many companies don’t, however, and even for those that do, it can be difficult to rise above the crisis to ponder the lessons of history. Yet in a recession, developing accurate strategic plans is usually a high-stakes effort. False assumptions about the pace, scale, and timing of growth may slow progress in good times but could be fatal now.

Executives in an industry that lags behind the economy, for example, may imagine that they can avoid a downturn because at first the industry doesn’t slow down when the economy does. Other executives, failing to realize that their industries tend to revive before the overall economy, may plan too conservatively for the upturn. Decisions about acquisitions, divestitures, and even recruiting or retaining talent often hang in the balance.

To help executives sharpen their perspective, we looked at the financial performance of US companies during the four most recent recessions.1 Then we analyzed sector-level2 total returns to shareholders (TRS), revenue growth, and growth in earnings before interest, taxes, and amortization (EBITA) around the times of these downturns. Although such analyses can’t provide definitive parallels from one recession to the next (for obvious reasons, such as size, geographical reach, or origins), the general trends can prove invaluable in helping executives examine their assumptions about the future performance of an industry. We found that, so far at least, the current recession—despite claims of its being “unprecedented”—seems to be following many of the patterns that previous ones did.

* Similar beginnings. The timing of contractions in sector-level sales and EBITA indicates that the four most recent recessions began with a core underlying shock that then spread through the economy in a fairly predictable way. All four began with falling sales and EBITA in the consumer discretionary sector, and three began with similar declines in the IT sector as well (Exhibit 1). By contrast, in three of the four, the energy sector was among the last to be hit. Some sectors have been fairly resistant to recessions: consumer staples wasn’t affected significantly in the last three, and the last two didn’t significantly affect health care.
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* Variable magnitude. The size of the contraction in EBITA varies across sectors (Exhibit 2). Generally, consumer discretionary, materials, energy, and industrials post the sharpest drops. The information technology sector has been more variable, with large drops during the past two recessions but smaller ones in 1973–75 and 1980–82. The most resilient sectors have been health care and consumer staples, whose revenues and EBITA fell relatively little in the majority of the previous recessions.
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* The speed of decline and recovery. In almost every recession we studied, sectors contracted much more quickly than they recovered.3 Typically, it takes six to eight quarters for a sector’s EBITA to bottom out—fewer in 1973–75 and more in 1980–82. The time needed to get back to peak EBITA levels generally is not only much longer but also highly variable. It took the better part of a decade for many sectors to recover from the recession of the early 1980s. After the recession of 2001, however, it took just over two years for most sectors to recover their peak EBITA levels once they reached bottom. Some industries, such as telecommunications in 2001, never hit their peak levels again.
* Similarities in share price performance. Share prices tend to decline either before or just as a recession starts; rarely does a sector’s TRS begin to decline much later. As a result, the share price performance of different sectors during a recession tends to be more similar than their financial performance (Exhibit 3). Share prices also tend to rise in step near the end of a recession, in marked contrast to revenues and EBITA, which often lag behind significantly.
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Overall, the impact of recessions on share prices has varied. During the 1973–75 downturn (and to a lesser extent, the 2001 one), share prices fell steeply, with many sectors suffering large losses; in 1973–75, for instance, all sectors but materials (which was down by 26 percent) lost more than a third of their value. In the 2001 recession, seven out of ten sectors lost more than 20 percent of their value. Sectors affected by “shocks” can fare even worse: IT and telecommunications each lost more than 75 percent of their value in the recession of 2001.

The 1980–82 and 1990–91 recessions affected valuations less severely. Only one sector lost more than a third of its value in either downturn (energy in 1980–82 and financials in 1990–91), and most sectors suffered losses of 5 to 15 percent.

The current recession seems to be following many patterns we observed in its predecessors. The consumer discretionary sector, which is sensitive to economic decline, has led in all of the past four recessions. It is also leading the current downturn, having posted the sector’s largest post-2001 drop in EBITA—almost 5 percent—during the second quarter of 2007, five months before the recession’s official start.4

In 2008, TRS fell significantly in nearly every sector, with all but consumer staples losing more than 20 percent of their value and seven losing more than a third of it.5 Given the historical patterns (and current headlines), revenues and EBITA can be expected to fall in most other sectors as the recession continues. These similarities give executives some idea of what to expect as they plan their next steps.

History also suggests some possible indicators of the beginning of a recovery. In three of the four most recent recessions, higher consumer discretionary and IT spending led the way. When real EBITA growth resumes in these sectors, it may be a useful indication that the economy is turning around. Also, TRS generally stops declining near the end of a recession, so resumed growth in broad stock market indices might also herald the end of the current one. Q logo
About the Authors

Tim Koller is a partner in McKinsey’s New York office, where Bin Jiang and Zane Williams are consultants.
Notes

1The recessions we studied were those of November 1973–March 1975, January 1980–November 1982, July 1990–March 1991, and March 2001–November 2001. Technically, the 1980–82 downturn was two recessions: January 1980–July 1980 and July 1981–November 1982. For this analysis, we have combined the two.

2We grouped the companies in our sample into ten Global Industry Classification Standards (GICS) sectors.

3Of the 27 instances when we documented a decline in earnings before interest, taxes, and amortization (EBITA) due to a recession, 24 showed a drop in EBITA that was faster than the recovery.

4The National Bureau of Economic Research has dated the start of the current US recession as December 2007.

5The 2008 total returns to shareholders (TRS) measured as of November 30, 2008.

Nations turn to barter deals to secure food
나라들이 식품안보를 위해 교환무역을 하는 방향으로 바꿨다.

By Javier Blas in London

Published: January 26 2009 23:32 | Last updated: January 26 2009 23:32

Countries struggling to secure credit have resorted to barter and secretive government-to-government deals to buy food, with some contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
여러 나라들이 정부간 거래 및 교역을 하여 식품안보에 대한 믿음을 얻는데 어려움을 겪고 있다. 교역거래 중 어떤 것은 1억달러 정도의 가치가 있다.

In a striking example of how the global financial crisis and high food prices have strained the finances of poor and middle-income nations, countries including Russia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Morocco say they have signed or are discussing inter-government and barter deals to import commodities from rice to vegetable oil.
세계 금융 위기와 식품가격상승이 빈국과 중간정도 국가의 재정을 어떻게 악화시키는지에 대한 예를 보자. 러시아, 말레이시아, 베트남, 모로코는 그들이 쌀부터 식물성 기름을 수입하는 교역계약을 논의하거나 맺었다고 말한다.

The revival of these trade practices, used rarely in the last 20 years and usually by nations subject to international embargoes and the old communist bloc, is a result of the countries’ failure to secure trade financing as bank lending has dried up.
지난 20년간 좀처럼 시행되지 않았지만 무역금지조치와 과거 공산국가지역에 속했던 나라들에 의한 이러한 무역행위의 재현은 해당 국가들의 은행돈줄이 마르면서 자금조달의 실패의 결과이다.(???)

The countries have not disclosed the value of any deals, and some have refused even to confirm their existence. Officials estimated that they ranged from $5m for smaller contracts to more than $500m for the biggest.
위 나라들은 어떤 계약도 공개하지 않고 있다. 일부는 공개가 승인되었음에도 거절되었다. 관계자들은 작은계약의 경우 5백만달러, 큰 계약의 경우에는 5억달러에 이를 것으로 예상한다.

Josette Sheeran, head of the United Nations’ World Food Programme, said senior government officials, including heads of state, had told the WFP they were facing “difficulties” obtaining credit to purchase food. “This could be a big problem,” she told the Financial Times.
유엔 세계식량프로그램의 책임자는 그들이 식량을 구매하는 데 믿음을 갖기 어려운 상황에 직면했다고 말했다. "이것은 큰 문제가 될 수 있어요." 그녀는 FT에 말했다.

Last week, Malaysia’s commodities minister, Datuk Peter Chin Fah Kui, said Kuala Lumpur had already signed a barter deal swapping palm oil for fertilizer and machinery with North Korea, Cuba and Russia. He said Malaysia was talking to Morocco, Jordan, Syria and Iran about other barter deals.
지난 주, 말레이시아의 상품장관인 다툭 피터 친 파 쿠이는 이미 북한, 쿠바, 러시아 등의 국가들과 팜오일을 화학비료, 기계와 교환하기로 했다고 말했다. 그는 말레이시아가 교환무역을 하기 위해 모로코, 요르단, 시리아, 이란과 협상중이라고 전했다.

“[Bartering] could be used for contracts with other countries that do not have the cash,” Mr Chin told the local press. “We can set the conditions for them to supply us with the raw materials that we need.”
"교환무역으로 돈이 없는 나라들과 교역할 수 있습니다." 친은 지방신문과 인터뷰에서 이렇게 말했다. "우리는 우리가 필요한 천연자원을 공급할 수 있도록 조건을 설정할 수 있어요."

Thailand, the world’s largest exporter of rice, is discussing barter deals with Middle Eastern countries, including Iran. The Philippines, the world’s largest importer of rice, has secured rice needs for this year through a diplomatic agreement with Hanoi.
세계에서 가장 많은량의 쌀을 수출하는 태국은 이란을 포함한 중동국가들과 교환무역을 하기 위해 협상하고 있다. 세계최대 쌀 수입국인 필리핀은 베트남과 외교협정을 맺으면서 이번 년도에 필요한 쌀을 공급하는 데 안정을 기할 수 있게 되었다.

The countries’ struggle to obtain credit to import food is boosting the price of domestic crops. Ms Sheeran said that prices of crops in some African countries were rising sharply even as international food commodities prices had fallen from last summer.
식량수입시 신용획득에 어려움을 겪는 국가들은 자국의 식량가격을 끌어올리고 있다. 쉬란은 일부 아프리카국가에서 식량가격은 국제 식량상품가격이 지난 여름부터 떨어지고 있음에도 급격히 올랐다고 말했다.

The move to barter shows the global food crisis that started last year is far from over.
교환무역으로의 이동은 지난해부터 시작된 세계식량위기가 끝나지 않았다는 것을 보여준다.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009

[Reuters] S Korean GDP growth seen slowing to 0.7%

S Korean GDP growth seen slowing to 0.7%
SEOUL, Jan 21 - South Korea’s economy will grow just 0.7 per cent this year, the slowest since the Asian financial crisis a decade ago, hit by the deepening global downturn, the country’s top government research agency said on Wednesday.

The Korea Development Institute’s (KDI) latest forecast, the lowest among the big government agencies, was a sharp downgrade from its previous projection for 3.3 per cent growth set in November and stood below the central bank’s 2 per cent growth forecast made in December.

Separate data showed exports shrank about 30 per cent in the first 20 days of January, more evidence that the worldwide downturn is battering the country.

The forecast and the export indicator deepened fears Asia’s fourth-largest economy was heading for its first contraction since the 1997/98 Asian financial crisis, analysts said.

”The KDI’s figures seem too optimistic as the economy definitely appeared to contract in the fourth quarter, and given other economic data,” said Park Sang-hyun, chief economist at HI Investment & Securities.

”Stimulus packages at home and abroad may take effect from the second half, but they are expected to be a just short-term pain killer, not a fundamental solution,” he added.

A rising number of private-sector experts expect South Korea’s economy to contract by as much as 3 per cent this year, with ratings agency Standard & Poor’s on Wednesday setting its growth forecast at zero.

The government has introduced fiscal stimulus and tax cuts worth around a combined $100bn, some 15 per cent of the country’s annual gross domestic product. The central bank has also cut the policy interest rate to a record-low 2.5 per cent from 5.25 per cent where it was at the beginning of October.

The Bank of Korea is expected to lower rates further, probably to as low as 1.5 per cent in the first quarter, and it may cut them more in the second half, analysts said.

After the KDI forecasts, the March treasury bond futures rose as much as 30 ticks.

”The economy is seen entering a recession phase on weaker domestic demand and as the impact of a sharp slowdown in the global economy bites into exports,” the KDI said in a statement.

The slowing economy, along with corporate restructuring, is expected to hit the job market hard as the economy needs to grow about 5 per cent to prevent further job loss, economists said.

”The employment environment will get much worse until next year as job markets usually lag the overall economy. We may see a jobs recovery in 2011 at the earliest,” said Oh Suk-tae, an economist at Citigroup.

South Korea’s economy was estimated to grow 3.7 per cent in 2008, the central bank said in December, after expanding an average of 4.4 per cent a year between 1998 and 2007.

The economy has expanded for the past 10 successive years after shrinking a some 7 per cent in 1998 in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis, which had pushed the country to the brink of economic collapse.

Underscoring the impact of global recession in Asia, Singapore’s government slashed its economic growth forecast for 2009 to as low as minus 5 per cent on Wednesday from the previous projection for as low as minus 2 per cent.

The KDI’s revised forecasts came a day before the Bank of Korea is due to release its first official GDP growth estimate for the fourth quarter of 2008 on Thursday.

Economists polled by Reuters estimated South Korea’s GDP to have contracted a seasonally adjusted 2.7 per cent in the October-December period from the third quarter, which would mark the biggest quarterly loss since early 1998.

[FT]Singapore recession deeper than expected

Singapore recession deeper than expected

SINGAPORE, Jan 21 - Singapore’s economy shrank more than expected in the fourth quarter, prompting the government to declare the nation was in its worst ever recession and fanning expectations that the central bank will let its currency weaken.
4/4분기동안 싱가폴 경제상황이 예상보다 나빠졌으며, 이에 따라 싱가폴중앙은행은 자국통화의 가치를 더욱 낮출것으로 예상한다.

The Singapore economy shrank in the fourth quarter at a seasonally adjusted, annualised pace of 16.9 per cent, deeper than advance estimates of a 12.5 per cent contraction, detailed government data showed on Wednesday.
경기침체정도는 16.9%로 예상치인 12.5%보다 좋지 않다.

The government said it now expected Singapore’s economy to contract between two and five percent this year, slashing its forecast further from an already downgraded outlook of a range of minus 2 per cent to plus 1 per cent published just three weeks ago.
싱가폴정부는 올해 싱가폴의 성장율이 -2~-5%에 그칠 것으로 발표했다.

”The Singapore economy is going through its sharpest, deepest and most protracted recession,” the Trade Ministry’s second permanent secretary Ravi Menon said at a media briefing.
싱가폴경제는 올해 가장 깊고, 장기간의 침체를 겪을 것이다고 무역장관차관보가 말했다.

Singapore’s central bank said on Wednesday that its monetary policy stance of zero appreciation in the Singapore dollar announced last October was intact and it had no plans to review monetary policy ahead of a scheduled policy meeting in April.
싱가폴달러의 가치를 그대로 유지하겠다고 공언했다.

But analysts said the gloomy economic forecasts and grim fourth quarter data increased the likelihood the central bank will loosen policy and let the Singapore dollar slide.
그러나 경제가 예상보다 나빠지면서 자국통화의 가치를 낮출 가능성이 높아졌다.

”I’m bearish for the Singapore dollar. It’s worse than I expected,” said Irene Cheung, currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore.
싱가폴 달러는 약세를 보일듯 하다고 통화전략가가 말했다.

”I expect monetary policy to remain accommodative -- they should have recentered the band earlier, but they might still do it -- the sooner the better.”
통화의 상하한선을 일찍 조절할 수록 더욱 좋다.

Singapore manages monetary policy by adjusting the value of its currency relative to those of its main trading partners in an undisclosed band. The Singapore dollar stood at 1.5037 against the U.S. dollar by 0050 GMT, compared with 1.51 before the data.
싱가폴 달러의 가치는 1.51에서 1.5037로 하락했다.

The government expects key non-oil domestic exports will shrink 9-11 per cent this year, while total trade, which includes entreport activities, may plunge 17-19 per cent.
싱가폴정부는 비석유부문 수출량이 9-11퍼센트 하락할 것이며 중계무역을 포함한 전체무역량은 17~19퍼센트 하락할 것이라고 예상했다.

From a year ago, fourth quarter gross domestic product, or the value of all goods and services produced in Singapore, fell 3.7 per cent following a drop of 0.2 per cent in the third quarter.
싱가폴의 4/4분기 국내생산량은 3.7%하락했으며 3분기에는 0.2%하락했었다.

Singapore last reported three straight quarters of economic contraction in 2001 after the dotcom bubble burst in the United States, badly hurting the city-state’s key electronics sector.
2001년 닷컴버블이 무너졌을 때 싱가폴의 전자부문은 상당한 충격을 받은바 있다.

The economy grew 1.2 per cent for all of 2008, slowing sharply from 7.7 per cent expansion in 2007.
2007년 7.7%성장했던 것에 비해 2008년은 1.2% 성장하는데 그쳤다.

The government said manufacturing output in the fourth quarter shrank 10.7 per cent from a year earlier, while services contracted 0.1 per cent.
정부는 4/4분기 제조업 생산량이 10.7%하락했으며 서비스부문은 0.1%떨어졌다고 밝혔다.
© Reuters Limited

[Economist] The great dilution

Corporate finance
The great dilution

Jan 15th 2009 | NEW YORK
From The Economist print edition
Companies may be forced to follow banks’ lead and tap their shareholders

IN 2008 battered banks scurried to raise fresh capital. As the recession bites, they will have to come back for more. Jostling with them for limited funds will be a fast-growing number of cash-strapped non-financial firms. Pain is spreading fast across the corporate world: analysts estimate that fourth-quarter profits across the S&P 500 fell by 15% year-on-year, the sixth decline in a row—the worst run on record. Days after laying off 13,500 and cutting production, Alcoa, a bellwether for earnings, announced a crushing $1.2 billion loss. Even traditionally defensive industries, such as pharmaceuticals, are suffering: Pfizer plans to lay off up to 8% of its researchers.
경기침체로 경영환경이 나뻐지고 있다. 4분기에는 S&P지수가 15% 떨어질 걸로 예상된다. 알코아는 감원 및 감산을 했고, 화이저 같은 경기방어 업체들도 감원하겠다고 말했다.

With banks loth to lend and credit markets still in turmoil, a tsunami of defaults seems imminent, despite the fact that credit has thawed a little in recent weeks: junk-bond spreads have fallen from their dizzying peak of 22 percentage points over government debt, and firms are paying less to issue commercial paper, widely used to finance working capital. But they will still struggle to roll over much of the $518 billion of corporate bonds and more than $1 trillion in loan facilities that, according to Citigroup, must be refinanced this year—especially given increased competition from sovereign borrowers seeking to plug deficits. Worse, a growing band of investors is using a mix of short-selling and credit-default swaps (CDSs) to bet against firms with heavy refinancing exposures. As their CDS spreads widen, those companies find it ever harder to sell fresh debt.
채권거래시장에서 기업들의 부도위험은 줄어들고 있다. 하지만 여전히 발행시장의 상황은 암울하다. 기업들은 년말까지 5180억 달러를 롤오버해야 한다. CDS의 금리차가 늘어나면서 국부펀드들은 사채에 투자하기를 꺼려하고 있다.

This could leave a lot of companies having to cough up big chunks of principal on top of their regular interest payments when bonds mature, just as revenues plummet. The debt-service coverage ratios (free cashflow divided by repayment obligations) of highly geared firms are falling below the critical level of one at a pace that seems to be unprecedented, says Barrie Wilkinson of Oliver Wyman, a consultancy. Cutting interest rates to the bone does little for firms that suddenly find themselves having to repay principal.

CDS spreads imply that around 10% of American firms will be forced into default. To avoid this, those that have trouble rolling over their debt have two main options. The first is to sell assets and use the proceeds to pay down debt. But losses booked from selling at fire-sale prices could quickly wipe through thin layers of equity. The second route is to raise capital, either through a debt-for-equity swap—as GMAC, a troubled vehicle-finance and mortgage lender, has done—or a discounted offering, such as a rights issue.

Some have already taken this last route to get lenders off their backs. Britain’s Premier Foods, for instance, is planning a rights issue in exchange for banks loosening the terms of its debt covenants. Others are likely to follow. Andrew Smithers of Smithers & Co, a research firm, expects American companies to swing from being net buyers of their own equity (through buybacks) to net sellers. Mr Wilkinson predicts a “great dilution” of existing shareholders in 2009. This could drive another round of selling in stockmarkets, he argues, which have hitherto focused only on falling profits. Fear over the need for further capital-raising contributed to the decline of banks’ shares.

Cash-poor firms would do well to move quickly. Banks that needed equity but dithered last year discovered to their cost that the pool of available capital was not limitless; they had to pay far more for it later, if they could get it at all. And stronger firms are drinking at the pool, too: Scottish & Southern, a British energy group, has just raised £479m ($704m), in part to bolster its ammunition for opportunistic deals.

As the problem grows, governments in America, Britain and Germany are starting to step in. But all this woe has a silver lining—at least for the investment bankers who have already been through it. The wave of corporate capital-raising will bring in underwriting fees that will help offset the slump in mergers and flotations. If they can find willing takers, that is.

Financial blogger arrested in South Korea
금융에 대해 글을 쓰던 한국의 블로거가 체포되었다.
By Christian Oliver in Seoul

Published: January 8 2009 17:54 | Last updated: January 8 2009 17:54

South Korea said on Thursday it had arrested an elusive blogger accused of undermining the country’s financial markets with his doom-mongering, ending a case that has illustrated government unease with the growing influence of online ­gossip in the world’s most-wired economy.
자국 경제에 대해 비관적인 게시물을 올리던 블로거가 체포되었다.

The case comes amid government efforts to combat negative comments on South Korea’s ailing economy in the media and from private sector economists. The export-dependent economy has been among the hardest hit in Asia by the global financial crisis.
이번 사건은 정부가 취약한 경제를 비판하는 의견들과 전쟁을 벌이겠다는 의지를 드러낸 것이다.

The arrest and possible imprisonment of a web commentator will raise profound questions about freedom of speech in Korea, where bills that would crack down on civil rights are stirring tensions between lawmakers.
정부가 그를 체포하면서 언론의 자유를 놓고 논쟁이 벌어질 것이다.

“Minerva”, who was arrested on Wednesday, has become a celebrated online guru in South Korea during the crisis. He gained instant kudos for what were seen as uncannily accurate utterances on the fall of Lehman Brothers and the crash of the Korean won, which plunged 26 per cent against the dollar last year.
미네르바는 리만의 추락과 한국 원화의 가치하락을 예측하면서 인터넷 상의 선지자로 떠올랐다.

Although some had speculated he might be a civil servant or even a market insider, authorities said Minerva was an unemployed university graduate without any substantial expertise in economics. Prosecutors declined to disclose his name, saying only that his surname was Park, the Korean equivalent of “Jones”.
그가 시장전문가일 것이다는 예측이 있었으나 조사결과 무직인 것으로 드러났다.

Government officials were incensed by an incorrect article Minerva wrote claiming they had ordered financial institutions to stop buying dollars. Authorities have said they are considering charging him with spreading false information.
정부는 미네르바가 거짓정보를 흘렸다고 보고 체포했다.

The court will decide on Friday what formal charges he could face. If found guilty of contravening Korea’s communications law, which bans the spreading of false information online, he could face seven years in jail.
법원의 판결에 따라 그는 최대 7년을 감옥에서 보내야 할 수도 있다.

The Korean government’s panic over Minerva and other web-based rumour-mongers reflects a greater concern about the political role of the internet in South Korea, the country with the world’s greatest per capita access to cyberspace.
인터넷이 가장 널리 퍼진 한국에서 인터넷상 정치의사표현은 어려워 질 수 있다.

An adviser to President Lee Myung-bak, a conservative former businessman, admitted to the Financial Times last month the government was trying to determine how to counter the influence of internet chat-rooms in Korean society, famed for its fiery temper.
이명박대통령의 측근은 인터넷의 영향력을 제한하기 위해 노력하고 있다고 말했다.

Mr Lee was shaken last year by street protests over imports of US beef. The government had been unprepared for the degree to which passions could be inflamed in chat-rooms and mass demonstrations orchestrated online within hours.
지난 광우병사건으로 위기를 맞았던 이명박정부는 이전까지 인터넷의 파급효과에 충분히 대비하지 못했다.
Additional reporting by Song Jung-a

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009

미네르바 열풍은 정부의 실정이 만들어낸 현상이다. 정부를 신뢰하지 못하는 국민들은 인터넷의 영웅에게서 안정을 찾고자 했다. 미네르바의 의견은 정부가 하는 말보다 현실을 정확히 파악했고, 미래를 똑바로 바라보았다. 정부가 좀 더 정직했다면 미네르바 열풍은 있지도 않았을 것이다. 이명박 정부가 계속 실정을 하는 한 또다른 미네르바가 나타날 수 밖에 없다.

베트남에서 경험한 사회주의

12일 간 베트남여행을 마치고 한국에 도착했습니다. 생애 첫 해외여행임에도 준비라고는 론리플래닛과 배낭만 산것이 전부라 무진장 고생했네요. 몸고생, 돈고생이야 물론이고 마음고생도 좀 했습니다. 사회주의국가에서 사회주의의 적나라한 현장앞에 한 쪽 무릎을 꿇었거든요.

베트남으로 향하는 비행기에서 한국에서 3년간 일하다가 돌아가는 베트남인을 만났습니다. 비행기 안에서 친해지자 평소 궁금했던 질문을 던졌어요. " 호치민, 어떻게 생각해요?" , "...." , "대단한 사람아닌 가요?", 그의 표정이 굳어집니다. " 그가 아니었다면 베트남은 한국처럼 잘 사는 나라가 됐을 거에요." 잠시 머리가 멍해졌습니다. 잔혹한 스탈린도 아니고, 문혁을 일으킨 마오쩌둥도 아니고, 평생을 독신으로 살며 조국독립에 온 몸을 바쳤다는 그를 싫어하는 베트남인을 여행초기에 만난겁니다.

그 후로도 호치민을 싫어하는 사람을 여럿 만났습니다. 대략 50:50 이었어요. 호치민에 대한 호불호는 지역에 따라 다릅니다. 저는 주로 남부지역을 다녔는데 그 곳에서 호치민의 인기는 바닥이었습니다. 특히 호시민시에서는 그를 좋아하는 사람을 만나지 못했습니다. 물론 기껏해야 세네명에게 말을 건게 전부지만요.

달 랏에서 그를 싫어한다는 한 늙은 모토바이크 기사와 깊은 이야기를 나눌 수 있었습니다. 똑같은 질문을 던졌는데 대답은 비행기에서 만났던 베트남인과 비슷합니다. 호치민의 북베트남이 전쟁에서 이겼기 때문에 모두가 못 살게 되었다는 거지요. 반문하고 싶었지만 더 깊이 묻지는 않기로 했습니다. 저는 이야기를 들으러 온거니까요. 대신 지금은 어떠냐고 물었습니다. 아직 베트남은 멀었답니다. "왜요?, 도이모이로 개혁개방을 해서 외국인도 들어오고 인터넷도 사용하잖아요.", "그거 알아? 우린, 새장안에 갖힌 새야.", "정부는 우릴 감시하고 있어. 자유롭지 못해. 자유? 정치적인 자유는 없어. 공산당과 다른 의사를 표명하면 잡혀 간다고." 두번째 충격입니다. 공산주의, 비밀경찰에 대한 이야기는 들었지만 실제 그러한 일이 있다고 하니 약간 충격에 휩싸입니다. 과연 이게 우리가 지향해야할 목표의 실체일까요. 아니면 이들만 기형적인 것일까요.

베트남에서 공산당의 권력을 유지하기 위한 자유는 무한대로 허용되는 것 같습니다. 여자가 몸을 파는 것 마저도 국가는 방조하고 있습니다. 달러를 벌면 정부에게 도움이 되니까요. 정부는 외국자본을 끌어들이고 있으며, 벌어지는 빈부격차를 해결하지 못하고 있습니다. 관료들은 부패했습니다. 제가 미니버스를 타고 부온마톱으로 가는 길에 실제로 버스기사가 공안의 단속에 걸리자 뇌물을 쥐어주는 장면을 목격했습니다. 하지만 베트남인민은 일당독재인 공산당을 비판하지 못합니다. 모든 미디어는 정부의 목소리만 대변하고 있습니다. 국영방송들은 뉴스보다는 드라마, 쇼프로그램을 틀며 인민들을 바보로 만들고 있어요.

제가 베트남에 있던 기간 중에 베트남이 스즈키컵에서 우승했습니다. 베트남 전역이 들썩이고 티비는 온종일 같은 경기를 반복해서 틀어주었죠. 그 때 저는 한적한 항구도시인 뀌뇽에 있었습니다. 평소같으면 7시 이후부터는 거리가 한산한데 그 날은 10시가 넘도록 도로가 오토바이로 가득 찾죠. 그들은 자신의 몸에 국기를 묶고 거리를 질주했습니다. 저와 같은 숙소에 있던 한 외국인은 이를 보고 지금 이곳에는 자유가 넘쳐난다고 했지만 제 생각은 달랐습니다. 앞서 모토바이크기사가 말한 것 처럼 이는 새장속의 자유일 뿐인거지요. 정부는 그들에게 도움이 되는 한도까지만 인민에게 자유를 허용하는 거에요.

사회주의국가들은 민주주의를 택하고 있다고 말하고, 국가이름에도 이를 적시합니다. 하지만 그들의 민주주의가 진정한 민주주의인가요? 젊은이는 정치에 무관심하고, 정부가 가르치는 역사만 배우는 상황에서 베트남의 민주주의는 성장할 수 있을까요? 거리에 널린 낡은 호치민 포스터만큼 베트남의 공산당은 낡았고, 이제 베트남에는 SALE이란 화려한 플랜카드만 날리고 있습니다. 사회주의는 민주주의의 반대가 아니라는 말, 사회주의는 자본주의 대안이라는 말이 왜 이렇게 멀게 느껴지는 걸까요.