Singapore recession deeper than expected
SINGAPORE, Jan 21 - Singapore’s economy shrank more than expected in the fourth quarter, prompting the government to declare the nation was in its worst ever recession and fanning expectations that the central bank will let its currency weaken.
4/4분기동안 싱가폴 경제상황이 예상보다 나빠졌으며, 이에 따라 싱가폴중앙은행은 자국통화의 가치를 더욱 낮출것으로 예상한다.
The Singapore economy shrank in the fourth quarter at a seasonally adjusted, annualised pace of 16.9 per cent, deeper than advance estimates of a 12.5 per cent contraction, detailed government data showed on Wednesday.
경기침체정도는 16.9%로 예상치인 12.5%보다 좋지 않다.
The government said it now expected Singapore’s economy to contract between two and five percent this year, slashing its forecast further from an already downgraded outlook of a range of minus 2 per cent to plus 1 per cent published just three weeks ago.
싱가폴정부는 올해 싱가폴의 성장율이 -2~-5%에 그칠 것으로 발표했다.
”The Singapore economy is going through its sharpest, deepest and most protracted recession,” the Trade Ministry’s second permanent secretary Ravi Menon said at a media briefing.
싱가폴경제는 올해 가장 깊고, 장기간의 침체를 겪을 것이다고 무역장관차관보가 말했다.
Singapore’s central bank said on Wednesday that its monetary policy stance of zero appreciation in the Singapore dollar announced last October was intact and it had no plans to review monetary policy ahead of a scheduled policy meeting in April.
싱가폴달러의 가치를 그대로 유지하겠다고 공언했다.
But analysts said the gloomy economic forecasts and grim fourth quarter data increased the likelihood the central bank will loosen policy and let the Singapore dollar slide.
그러나 경제가 예상보다 나빠지면서 자국통화의 가치를 낮출 가능성이 높아졌다.
”I’m bearish for the Singapore dollar. It’s worse than I expected,” said Irene Cheung, currency strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore.
싱가폴 달러는 약세를 보일듯 하다고 통화전략가가 말했다.
”I expect monetary policy to remain accommodative -- they should have recentered the band earlier, but they might still do it -- the sooner the better.”
통화의 상하한선을 일찍 조절할 수록 더욱 좋다.
Singapore manages monetary policy by adjusting the value of its currency relative to those of its main trading partners in an undisclosed band. The Singapore dollar stood at 1.5037 against the U.S. dollar by 0050 GMT, compared with 1.51 before the data.
싱가폴 달러의 가치는 1.51에서 1.5037로 하락했다.
The government expects key non-oil domestic exports will shrink 9-11 per cent this year, while total trade, which includes entreport activities, may plunge 17-19 per cent.
싱가폴정부는 비석유부문 수출량이 9-11퍼센트 하락할 것이며 중계무역을 포함한 전체무역량은 17~19퍼센트 하락할 것이라고 예상했다.
From a year ago, fourth quarter gross domestic product, or the value of all goods and services produced in Singapore, fell 3.7 per cent following a drop of 0.2 per cent in the third quarter.
싱가폴의 4/4분기 국내생산량은 3.7%하락했으며 3분기에는 0.2%하락했었다.
Singapore last reported three straight quarters of economic contraction in 2001 after the dotcom bubble burst in the United States, badly hurting the city-state’s key electronics sector.
2001년 닷컴버블이 무너졌을 때 싱가폴의 전자부문은 상당한 충격을 받은바 있다.
The economy grew 1.2 per cent for all of 2008, slowing sharply from 7.7 per cent expansion in 2007.
2007년 7.7%성장했던 것에 비해 2008년은 1.2% 성장하는데 그쳤다.
The government said manufacturing output in the fourth quarter shrank 10.7 per cent from a year earlier, while services contracted 0.1 per cent.
정부는 4/4분기 제조업 생산량이 10.7%하락했으며 서비스부문은 0.1%떨어졌다고 밝혔다.
© Reuters Limited
2009. 1. 21.
[FT]Singapore recession deeper than expected
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